Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
